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Goa Opinion Poll

The state of Goa goes to elections in less than a year. The BJP, Congress and Aam Aadmi Party have begun hectic campaigning in the state. Ruling party

BJP appears confident of holding on to power in the state. The Aam Aadmi Party is contesting in the state for the first time. BJP member and Goa chief minister Lakshmikant Parsekar has claimed that the people of Goa are not going to vote in favour of Aam Aadmi Party as they judge a party closely before giving the mandate. According to an opinion poll conducted by VDPA Associates, the BJP is going to get majority in the coming Goa Assembly elections. The runner-up could be either Congress or the Aam Aadmi Party.

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll have indicated that if elections were to be held in Goa today, the BJP would emerge the winner . The Kautilya voter intelligence survey, on the other hand, says that the AAP is going to be the single largest party in the state.

On the basis of a survey conducted in Goa at the end of December 2016, the India Today-Axis opinion poll has predicted that the BJP is going to get 20 to 24 seats in the 40-member state legislative assembly while the Congress may bag 13 to 15 seats. The Aam Aadmi Party, which has been running a long and hectic campaign in the coastal state, may register its presence by winning 2-4 seats. Other regional parties such as the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) might win 1-4 seats. For the chief minister’s post, 35 per cent of the respondents in the survey preferred incumbent Laxmikant Parsekar while former CM Digambar Kamat of the Congress was the choice of 20 per cent respondents. Notably, 41 per cent of the respondents said BJP lost support in Goa after Manohar Parrikar went to Delhi to join the Union Cabinet as Defence Minister.

PartySeat Share
BJP20-24
Congress13-15
AAP2-4
Others1-4

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 13 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Goa today.

PartySeat ShareVotes Share %
BJP+17-2138
Congress13-2634
AAP1-316
Other3-512

According to a survey conducted by Kautilya voter intelligence survey 2016, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would emerge as the single largest largest party in Goa if elections were held to the state legislative assembly today. The survey indicates that ruling party BJP is going increasingly out of favour though it can win back voters’ confidence if Manohar Parrikar returns as the state’s chief ministerial candidate.It was conducted between April to July 2016 in all 40 constituencies and 1640 polling booths of the state among 80,000 respondents. According to this survey, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would get 14 seats out of the total 40 and emerge as the single largest largest party in Goa if elections to the state legislative assembly were to be held today.

PartySeat Projection
AAP14
MGP11
BJP7
INC6
IND2
PartyPredicted Seats
BJP17-18
MGP3-4
AAP4-5
Congress12-13
Others1-2

Forecast vote % and seats as per Opinion Poll July 2016

PartySeatsVote %
BJP+2241.4
AAP924.0
Cong+623.5
GF25.0

Actual vote % and Seats in the 2012 election

SeatsVote %
2644.9
00
934.8
00
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