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Punjab Opinion Poll

The Punjab Assembly elections will be held in single phase on February 4, 2017. The state has witnessed hectic campaigning by all the main political contenders including SAD, Congress and AAP. Various media agencies have conducted opinion poll surveys to gauge the mood of the voting public to know which way the wind is blowing.

A survey conducted by Huffington Post India and CVoter has indicated that the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is set to clinch majority in the state with 100 seats. The opinion poll conducted by VDP Associates has also come up with similar results. The results of the opinion poll conducted by Elections.in has thrown up mixed results. The website had posed the question whether the Aam Aadmi Party will win majority in Punjab Assembly Elections 2017. While 44% of the respondents said yes, 45% said that it will sit in opposition.

Although it is difficult to predict the outcome of Punjab Assembly elections 2017, there is no doubt that the Aam Aadmi Party is going to be a crucial new contender in the race this time. In the last Assembly elections held in 2012, the SAD-BJP alliance won majority. This time around, it faces the challenge of anti-incumbency. Besides, the Congress and Aam Aadmi Party are going to give a tough competition to the ruling alliance.

According to a pre-poll survey conducted by India Today in association with Axis in December 2016, a down-and-out Congress may finally make a stunning comeback in Punjab in the coming assembly elections in the state which are scheduled to be held exactly a month from now. The opinion poll has given the Sonia Gandhi-led Congress party 56 to 62 seats in the 117-member Punjab Assembly. The Akali Dal-BJP combine has been in power in Punjab for two consecutive terms and they are facing a strong anti-incumbency. They may be reduced to just 18 to 22 seats. The other contesting party is BSP, which commands sizeable Dalit votes in the state. It may bag one to four seats.

As revealed by the survey, 33 per cent of the respondents said they want Amarinder Singh as their Chief Minister while incumbent Parkash Singh Badal is favoured by 22 per cent. Kejriwal also makes it to the list by being the choice of 16 per cent of the respondents. Others in the reckoning are Bhagwant Mann (9 per cent), Navjot Singh Sidhu (5 per cent), Sukhbir Badal (3 per cent) and HS Phoolka (1 per cent). A whopping 39 per cent of the respondents said the BJP should end its alliance with the Akali Dal while 28 per cent were okay with the alliance. Punjab will vote in a single-phase election along with Goa on February 4. The results will be counted on March 11.

PartySeat Share
Congress56-62
AAP36-41
SAD-BJP18-22
Others1-4

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 13 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Punjab today, the Congress would win 49 to 55 seats and emerge as the single largest party in the state. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which had triggered massive interest among voters but also bitter dissent within, is predicted to be a close runner-up with 42 to 46 seats. The Congress tally would fall short of the majority mark in the 117-member state Assembly, because of which it may to go for an alliance with Navjot Singh Sidhu’s newly formed Aawaz-e-Punjab. Sidhu’s party might manage to secure a few seats and help the two reach the magic figure of 59 in order to form government in the state. With a sample size of 6,552, the survey was conducted on the basis of one-on-one interviews and a set of questions covering all 117 constituencies of the state.

PartySeat ShareVotes Share %
BJP+SAD17-2122%
Congress49-5533%
AAP42-4630%
Other3-715%
PartySeat Projection
SAD-BJP20-25
AAP70-80
INC27-35
PartySeat Projection (April 2015)Seat Projection(March 2016)
BJP+SAD13-196-12
AAP83-8994-100
Others0-30-3
Congress21-188-14
Total117117

Forecast vote % and seats as per Opinion Poll July 2016

PartySeatsVote %
SAD1220.0
AAP10046.1
Cong+324.0
BJP16.0

Actual vote % and Seats in the 2012 election

SeatsVote %
5434.7
00
4640
127.18
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