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Uttar Pradesh (UP) Opinion Poll

On the day the Election Commission of India announced the polling schedule for five states, an opinion poll conducted by India Today-Axis from October to December 2016 has predicted a clear majority for BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The survey shows Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation drive as having a positive impact on the BJP’s vote-share. Demonetisation was announced on November 8, halfway through the survey period. The survey shows the BJP’s vote share increasing from 31% in October to 33% in December. In terms of seats, the survey projects 206-216 seats for BJP in the 403-member UP assembly.

Seat Share Prediction

PartySeat ShareVotes Share %
BJP206-21633
SP92-9726
BSP79-8526
Congress5-96
Others7-119

Caste-wise Vote Share Prediction

PartyMuslim Vote Share %Yadav Vote Share %Brahmin Vote Share %Thakur Vote Share %OBC Vote Share %
BJP414596053
SP2169915
BSP5867141413
Congress52967
Others121191112

On the other hand, the ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS has predicted a close fight between the BJP and the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. The survey has given 141-151 seats to the Samajwadi Party, 129-139 to the BJP, 93-103 to the BSP and 13-19 to the Congress. According to 28 percent of the voters, incumbent Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav is projected to retain his seat. Bahujan Samaj Party president Mayawati is placed second in the survey results with 21 percent of the votes.

Only 3 percent of the voters picked Akhilesh Yadav’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav for the Chief Minister’s post. Voters also felt that Akhilesh’s performance as Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister was better than that of Narendra Modi’s performance as the prime minister, with 34 percent picking the former.

Amid the deepening feud within the Yadav clan, a whopping 86 percent of the poll respondents picked Akhilesh as their choice for Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister. Father Mulayam Singh and uncle Ram Gopal only found favour with 6 percent and 2 percent of the voters respectively. Interestingly, while support for the SP among Muslim voters appears to have fallen by 8 percentage points from August, the BJP appears to have made inroads with the community in the same time period. While the BJP is expected to bag 55 percent of the upper caste votes, the SP is expected to win 75 percent of the Yadav vote. The BSP is projected to win 74 percent votes from the Jatavs and 56 percent votes from the Dalit community.

PartySeat ShareVotes %
SP141-15130
BJP+129-13427
BSP93-10322
INC13-198
Other6-12 13

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 12 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Uttar Pradesh today, the BJP’s dream run looks set to continue in Uttar Pradesh with the party expected to win 170 to 183 seats. Nonetheless, it won’t be enough to get majority in the state. A party must secure at least 202 seats to form majority in the 403-member Uttar Pradesh Assembly. The elections are likely to result in a hung Assembly, the opinion poll has revealed. It goes on predict Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is to be the runner-up with 115-124 seats. Incumbent Samajwadi Party is likely get 94 to 103 seats and sit in opposition. The Congress, which has been out of power in the state since 1989, is likely to fare miserably again, with 8 to 12 seats.

PartySeat ShareVote Shares
BJP170-18331%
BSP115-12428%
SP94-10325%
Congress8 - 126%
Other2 - 610%
PartySeat ShareVote Shares
BJP+19031%
BSP8724%
SP11127%
Congress55%
Others1013%

According to an opinion poll conducted by ‘My Mandate and Pratishtha Research’ and published on parliamentarian.in, the BSP is projected to win 169 seats in the upcoming Uttar Pradesh assembly elections and the BJP 135. The survey covered a sample of 25,000 voters in 60 assembly constituencies including all four regions of the state, that is, Avadh, Pashchim Uttar Pradesh, Bundelkhand and Purvanchal. The survey was conducted between August 10 and 27, 2016.

Current and projected seat positions as well as voting percentages for different political parties ahead of the 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections.

Zone-wise projected positions of different political parties ahead of 2017 Uttar Pradesh assembly election

PartyPaschimAwadhBundelkhandPurvanchalTotal
SP152523274
BJP4822362135
BSP67301161169
INC223815
others420410

Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections are due early next year and all the major political contenders have already begun their preparations to clinch victory in this politically significant state. ABP News-Cicero conducted a survey among 1,000 respondents to get an estimate of the voters’ mood. The survey was conducted on July 24 and 25 in 10 constituencies of the state. According to the survey results, the BJP is most likely to form the next government in the state with SP and BSP as close runners-up.

Who would form the next government in UP?
BJP 32%
Samajwadi Party 26%
BSP 24%
Congress 7%
Hung assembly 4%
Can’t say 7%

The survey further indicates that Priyanka Gandhi may not be able to brighten Congress’ fortunes in the state.

Can Priyanka bring Congress back in UP?
Yes 19%
No.51%
Can’t say 30%
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