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Uttarakhand Opinion Poll

Uttarakhand is expected to go to elections within the next six months in early 2016. Predicting the exact outcome of the Uttarakhand assembly elections at this juncture can be a little tricky. Nonetheless, one thing is for certain: the race for majority in Uttarakhand Vidhan Sabha is going to be a fight to the finish. The Congress will work hard to retain power in the face of anti-incumbency and its dwindling fortunes in other states. In the last Assembly elections held in 2012, no party got majority. The Congress was the single largest party and it forged a post-poll alliance with the PDF to form government in the state. The BJP was the runner-up and it sat in opposition.

Various pollsters have conducted opinion polls and surveys to study voter behaviour and predict the likely outcome of the coming elections. If the results of the opinion polls are anything to go by, the BJP and Congress are headed for a close fight. According to the opinion polls conducted by India Today-Axis and VDPA Associates, the BJP has a slight edge over the Congress in the current scenario.

A pre-election survey conducted internally by Uttarakhand’s ruling party Congress has predicted that the party is going to win 33 out of 70 seats in the state going to polls early next year. Uttarakhand Congress president Kishore Upadhyay claimed that the survey also shows the party in a formidable position in another 10 seats. He interpreted the results as an indication that the Congress may win 43 seats and said that if it becomes true, it will be the biggest electoral victory for a party in the history of the state.

Among the five states going to polls early in 2017, Uttarakhand is the only one where there is a direct fight between the Congress and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The India Today-Axis Opinion Poll shows that the Congress will find it difficult to retain power in this hill state. The opinion poll has given BJP 41 to 46 seats in the 70-seat Uttarakhand legislative assembly. The Congress is predicted to win 18 to 23 seats while others could get 2-6 seats. The survey also showed that the BJP is way ahead of Congress and other parties in terms of vote share. While the BJP is expected to get 45 per cent of vote share, Congress may come a distant second with 33 per cent of vote share. Others just 22 per cent. The opinion poll shows that BJP’s B.C. Khanduri is a popular choice for the chief minister’s post. However, there is a tight contest between Khanduri and incumbent Harish Rawat. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s demonetisation move is not going to affect the BJP’s poll prospects as a majority of respondents (79 per cent) view the note ban as good.

PartySeat Share
BJP41 - 46
Congress18 -23
Others2 - 6
PartySeat ShareVotes Share %
BJP34-4340
Congress22-3033

Results of the India Today-Axis Opinion Poll, published on 13 October 2016, have indicated that if elections were to be held in Uttarakhand today.

PartySeat ShareVote Share %
BJP38-4343
Congress26-3139
Others1-418
PartySeat ShareVote % Sharing
BJP4039
Congress2434
BSP27
Others413
Undecided-7

Uttarakhand Region wise Vote Share

BJPCongBSPOthersUndecided
Kumaon343951210
Garhwal41332177
Terai403212115
Maidan41329126
Party NameSeats
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)31
Indian National Congress (INC)32
Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)3
Uttarakhand Kranti Dal(P) UKD(P)1
Independent (IND)3
Total70
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